On June 15, the US and Iran announced a deal to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Brent fell to about $72 by late June, back where it started before February 28. The costs of the four months in between are still being counted.
On June 15, the US and Iran announced a deal to end the war, extend the ceasefire by 60 days and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Brent fell 4.7% that morning to about $83. A memorandum signed in Geneva followed, and by the end of the month Brent had slid to about $72 a barrel, the level it stood at on February 27, the day before the strikes began. On a price chart, the war looks like a four-month mountain that has been flattened.
What reopening actually involves
“Reopening” a strait is not like opening a door. Shipping companies need insurers willing to cover vessels again, and war-risk insurance premiums fall only gradually. Navies must confirm that routes are clear. Tankers that were rerouted or idled have to be rescheduled. For weeks, oil and gas cargoes continue arriving late and at higher shipping costs, even after prices on screens have dropped.
A price can return to where it started. An economy that lived through four months of it does not.
What India is left with
The bill for the war outlasts the price. India paid far more for oil and gas between March and June, widening its current account deficit. The RBI spent tens of billions of dollars of reserves defending a rupee that hit a record low of 96.97 in May. Oil companies absorbed large losses to keep pump prices frozen. Restaurants and small factories lived through a gas shortage. Some of that will be recovered as oil stays low. Some of it is simply gone.
The deal also leaves an open question about how long calm will last. A 60-day ceasefire extension is a pause, not a treaty. For now, cheaper oil is the best news India’s economy has had since February. Whether it stays cheap depends on decisions made far from India, which is the uncomfortable lesson of the whole episode.
Sources: International oil market data, June 15–26, 2026; Reuters and XTB market reporting.
- A US–Iran deal announced on June 15 extended the ceasefire and provided for reopening Hormuz.
- Brent fell 4.7% that day to about $83, and to around $72 by late June.
- Reopening is gradual: insurance, shipping schedules and mine clearance take time.
- India’s costs, including a weaker rupee and spent reserves, outlast the price of oil.
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