Why My Grandfather Is Planting Less Cotton This Year

The weather office expects a weak monsoon. My grandfather in Saurashtra has already changed what he will sow. A forecast is becoming an economic decision.

A forecast with consequences

The India Meteorological Department expects this year’s monsoon to fall about 10% short of normal, with El Niño strengthening through the season. El Niño is a warming of the Pacific Ocean that tends to weaken the Indian monsoon. In 2009 and 2015, both El Niño years, rainfall fell well short and farm output suffered.

My grandfather farms about eight acres near Bhavnagar. Most years he plants cotton, which pays well but needs reliable rain at the right time. This year he plans to put half his land under groundnut and some under bajra, which need less water and recover better from dry spells. He made the decision before a single cloud appeared, based on the forecast and what his neighbours were saying.

How a farm decision becomes a price

Multiply his decision across lakhs of farmers in Gujarat, Maharashtra and Telangana, and cotton acreage falls. Less cotton means higher cotton prices later in the year, which raises costs for textile mills in places like Tiruppur and Surat. The weak monsoon also affects pulses, vegetables and onions, which are more sensitive to rain than wheat or rice grown on irrigated land.

Nearly half of India’s farmland still depends on rain rather than irrigation. That is why the monsoon is sometimes called India’s real finance minister. A good one raises rural incomes, which lifts demand for motorcycles, fertiliser and consumer goods. A bad one does the opposite, and pushes up food prices for everyone.

What farmers cannot control

My grandfather has crop insurance under the government scheme, but he says claims are slow and the payout rarely covers the full loss. He also keeps savings in gold and a fixed deposit for bad years. Those are the same tools a city family uses for emergencies, but a farmer needs them more often, because his income depends on the sky.

Watching him plan, I realised that farming is one of the most uncertain businesses in the economy, and that farmers manage risk constantly without using the word. Switching crops, saving in gold and keeping debt low are all forms of hedging. When the RBI or the government talks about the monsoon’s effect on inflation, this is what sits underneath: millions of families like mine making careful bets on rain.